TFFL Historical Draft Summary & Analysis

By Glenn Graham & Tim Redmond

10/25/22

 

Now that we have over a decade of TFFL drafts under our belts, it is time to take a look back at the good, the bad, and the ugly. 

 

Our very own HOF sports writer, Glenn Graham, is going to start us off and provide his take on the best and worst of the first decade of TFFL drafts.

 

All Decade Team’s

by Glenn Graham

 

ALL DECADE TFFL DRAFT TEAM

All-time top picks by round

(based on value of when they were picked in each round)

First Team

RD 1 – Justin Herbert 2020, 1.10, CPR

RD 2 – Davante Adams, 2014, 2.10, G-Stringers

RD 3 – Travis Kelce, 2013, 3.2, CPR

RD 4 – Stefon Diggs, 2015, 4.7, Bellas Pooty

RD 5 – Tony Pollard, 2019, 5.8, DreamTeam84

RD 6 – Kirk Cousins, 2012, 6.10, DreamTeam84

RD 7 – George Kittle, 2017, 7.5, BDR

Second Team

RD 1 – Alvin Kamara, 2017 1.8, Taint

RD 2 – Patrick Mahomes, 2017, 2.2, BDR

RD 3 – Dak Prescott, 2016, 3.9, G-Stringers

RD 4 – Zach Ertz, 2013, 4.1, G-Stringers

RD 5 – Jarvis Landry, 2014, 5.1, Wet Beavers 

RD 6 – James Robinson, 2020, 6.3, TB Bucs

RD 7 – Alfred Morris, 2012, 7.3, CPR

Third Team

RD 1 – Derrick Henry, 2016, 1.8, Spitbulls  

RD 2 – Josh Allen, 2018, 2.5, BDR

RD 3 – Keenan Allen, 2013, 3.6, Spitbulls

RD 4 – Tyler Lockett, 2014, 4.4, Bellas Pooty

RD 5 – Chris Thompson, 2013, 5.10, DreamTeam84

RD 6 – Rex Burkhead, 2013, 6.3, Spitbulls

RD 7 – Malcolm Brown, 2015, 7.10, Spitbulls

Honorable mentions: Christian McCaffrey, 2017, 1.4, Wet Beavers; Nick Chubb, 2018, 1.7, Spitbulls; Ja’Marr Chase, 2021, 1.7, Frosted Flaccos; Justin Jefferson, 2020, 2.2, Spitbulls; Russell Wilson, 2012, 2.7, Spitbulls; Alshon Jeffrey, 2012, 3.2, BDR; Mark Andrews, 2018, 3.6, BDR; Diontae Johnson, 2019, 3.7, BDR; Terry McLauren, 2019, 3.8, Dream Team; Jimmy Garrapollo, 2014, 3.9, G Stringers; Cooper Kupp, 2017, 4.1, TB Bucs; Dallas Goedert, 2018, 4.5, Spitbulls; Jamison Crowder, 2015, 5.1, Rookie Mistakes; Dawson Knox, 2019, 6.6, TB Bucs.

 

Glenn Graham’s Top 5 All-Time Best Overall Drafts

 

1 – BDR 2020 – Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, Michael Pittman, Jalen Hurts, Tee Higgins

2 – Frosted Flaccos 2021 – Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Michael Carter, Pat Freiermuth

3 – BDR 2019 – AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, David Montgomery, Diontae Johnson, Matt Gay

4 - Taint 2017 – Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Ju Ju Smith Schuster, Matt Breida

5 – Spitbulls 2018 – Nick Chubb, Lamar Jackson, Dallas Goedert

 

Now Glenn will take a look at the ugly…

 

All-Time Worst First Round (by picks)

1.1 Bishop Sankey, 2014. Wet Beavers

1.2 Derrius Guice, 2018, Taint

1.3 Corey Coleman, 2016, CPR

1.4 Josh Doctson, 2016, Bellas Pooty

1.5 N’Keal Harry, 2019, BDR

1.6 Josh Rosen, 2018, Bellas Pooty

1.7 Samaje Perine, 2017, Spitbulls

1.8 Brandon Weeden, 2012, Bellas Pooty

1.9 Marcus Lattimore, 2013, BDR

1.10 Dorial Green-Beckham, 2015, Bellas Pooty

 

Thanks Glenn for providing us with our all decade teams!

 

Historical Draft Analysis

By Tim Redmond

 

So let’s start off with one of the questions that everyone has an opinion on, but no one quite seems to see eye to eye on… what are my picks worth?  I will start by saying I know most of us are degenerate gamblers, so obviously the thrill and chase of the unknown is worth more than just what a given player might do.  That will become pretty obvious through this review based on some of the dumb trades we have all made.

 

At this link you will find my math on how I would value each future draft pick. 

http://www.tffleague.com/TFFLRookieDraftsHistoryPPG.htm

I actually just put this together last night, but wish I had done it a long time ago.  I was even more surprised than I thought I would be at what the true value of each pick was. 

 

Let’s start with the most valuable pick of them all… Pick 1.1.  Using the data to assign a value to the first pick I am showing that you could expect around 16.0 points per game from a player drafted 1.1 overall.  Another important element is the duration you could expect from a given player.  Overall, the average NFL player only lasts 3.3 years in the league.  Based on the data I looked at, the higher draft picks last a little bit longer than that.  I am modeling that the first overall pick has an expected length of 80 career games, which is just under 5 years.

So now that we have the PPG (16.0) and the games played (80), I am assigning a value to the 1.1 pick of 1,280 points for their career.  When I saw that number it seemed very low to me.  So I took a look at our data…

 

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2012

1

1

Robert Griffin

QB

59

12.74

751.86

-2.3

2013

1

1

Giovani Bernard

RB

127

9.89

1255.50

-5.1

2014

1

1

Bishop Sankey

RB

29

5.51

159.70

-9.5

2015

1

1

Jameis Winston

QB

83

17.74

1472.26

2.7

2016

1

1

Ezekiel Elliott

RB

88

18.85

1659.20

3.9

2017

1

1

Leonard Fournette

RB

63

15.87

999.60

0.9

2018

1

1

Saquon Barkley

RB

44

18.04

793.90

3.0

2019

1

1

Josh Jacobs

RB

43

15.32

658.80

0.3

2020

1

1

Joe Burrow

QB

26

21.30

553.90

6.3

2021

1

1

Trevor Lawrence

QB

17

11.47

195.00

-3.5

 

Looking at the TFFL data, the average of all 1st picks is 850 points.  Obviously many of these players have a lot of career left so that isn’t a good comparison.  So I took the average PPG of the 10 picks which is 14.7 PPG.  I feel good about the 80ish games for their career as that has been validated in multiple places.  So 14.7 * 80 games = 1,176 career points.  This is actually less than I am suggesting the value is, but not far off.

So if the first pick overall is worth between 1,175 – 1,300 career points what kind of player should you expect?  Just looking at the list above, while Gio Bernard may seem like a bust, he is actually the exact type of player you can expect from pick 1.1 on average.

Other players in this range that have been drafted in TFFL Rookie Drafts consist of the following…

 

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2014

10

1

Devonta Freeman

RB

98

13.23

1296.80

3.2

2015

19

2

David Johnson

RB

87

14.89

1295.70

6.7

2014

9

1

Blake Bortles

QB

78

16.11

1256.56

5.9

2013

1

1

Giovani Bernard

RB

127

9.89

1255.50

-5.1

2012

13

2

Lamar Miller

RB

106

11.27

1194.50

1.9

2013

34

4

Latavius Murray

RB

122

9.73

1187.00

3.2

2012

25

3

Mohamed Sanu

WR

135

8.54

1153.02

1.0

 

I filtered down the list to guys who are either retired or are very close to being done with their careers.  I know for me personally when I think of pick 1.1 these are not the guys I envision getting in return, but these are the types of players that the data proves you will land with 1.1 on average.

Let’s look at one other data point to drive home the value model I put together.  I will use pick 2.10 which is the 20th overall pick.  I am suggesting that the value of this pick is worth about 550 career TFFL points. 

Here is a list of all of the players taken 20th overall in our league…

 

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2012

20

2

Stephen Hill

WR

23

5.58

128.40

-2.4

2013

20

2

Stepfan Taylor

RB

62

1.59

98.70

-6.4

2014

20

2

Davante Adams

WR

116

16.54

1919.10

8.5

2015

20

2

David Cobb

RB

7

3.06

21.40

-4.9

2016

20

2

Tyler Boyd

WR

87

11.57

1006.90

3.6

2017

20

2

John Ross

WR

37

6.16

227.80

-1.8

2018

20

2

Christian Kirk

WR

56

11.49

643.70

3.5

2019

20

2

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside

WR

40

1.43

57.00

-6.6

2020

20

2

Antonio Gibson

RB

30

14.71

441.30

6.7

2021

20

2

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR

17

13.14

223.30

5.1

2022

20

2

Zamir White

RB

 

I recently made a trade using a pick that should be in 17-20 overall range with a value of 550-600 points.  I went back and forth on whether Geno Smith was really worth a 2nd round pick.  I didn’t have this data pulled together when I made the trade, but now I feel like this was a no brainer.  Do I feel like Geno Smith will score more than 550 points in our league for the rest of his career?  Definitely.  If he stays the starting QB for the remainder of this year and all of next season he should come close to 500 points right there.  I also feel better about the gamble on a known player versus the chance of landing over half the names on the list above, some of which I drafted.  This is exactly how I would use the value chart that I provided.  When considering a trade for a pick, do you think that player you are getting will return the same or more points than the value assigned?  And how much value do you add on to the pick for the “gamble” factor?

I also made another trade during the offseason that I wouldn’t have with this information.  I essentially traded my 2023 1st for Joe Mixon.  Again, I would now assume my 1st to be worth around 800-900 points.  At this point in Mixon’s career, I highly doubt that he will score another 800-900 points.  If I had to guess he will probably score 400-600 over the next 2-3 seasons before fading away.  There is a chance he might get to 600-800, but even if I factor in that I am getting the value sooner, Mixon is probably not worth a late first pick at this stage of his career. 

 

Another interesting data point that I picked up on was the value between picks 7 and 20 in our draft.  I think we would all agree that pick 7 is more valuable than pick 20, but the data isn’t as clear as I thought.  I highlighted in yellow the actual PPG for the players selected at these picks below…

Career TFFL

Row Labels

Sum of Games

Sum of Total Points

Actual PPG

PPG TrendValue

Points Value

1

579

8,499.7

14.68

16.00

1,280

2

538

8,807.5

16.37

15.50

1,209

3

531

8,249.1

15.54

15.00

1,155

4

653

8,249.9

12.63

14.00

1,064

5

574

7,554.6

13.16

13.00

975

6

364

5,158.6

14.17

12.50

938

7

432

3,824.6

8.85

12.00

900

8

515

7,069.1

13.73

11.75

881

9

496

5,429.4

10.95

11.25

810

10

481

6,105.4

12.69

11.00

792

11

398

3,038.1

7.63

10.80

756

12

484

6,520.0

13.47

10.60

721

13

612

6,643.5

10.86

10.40

676

14

424

3,226.1

7.61

10.20

663

15

446

5,069.0

11.37

10.00

650

16

441

4,450.1

10.09

9.80

637

17

539

6,764.3

12.55

9.60

624

18

437

3,442.5

7.88

9.40

592

19

521

4,626.8

8.88

9.20

580

20

475

4,767.6

10.04

9.00

549

 

You can see it is a bit scattered between 7.6 and 13.7 PPG.  Pick #7 is a bit of an outlier given it is by far the worst pick of the 1st round.  However, if you take the average PPG for picks 7-11 it is 10.8 PPG.  These are late first round picks and the highly coveted 2.1 pick.  The overall average of the remaining 2nd round picks, 12-20, is 10.3 PPG.  That means the difference between picks 7-11 and picks 12-20 is only 0.5 PPG or 8.5 points per player per season… that is a rounding error.  A lot of this has to due to the fact that our league has started to disrespect the WR’s in favor of chasing QB’s and RB’s.  Last year’s draft is the perfect example.  Guys like James Cook, Ridder, and Willis should have never gone before Olave, Pickens, and Jameson Williams… but they did.

I think many of us have realized over the years the lack of respect the 2nd round picks get versus the value they really bring, and especially compared to getting a late “first pick”.  Those 2nd round picks are also weighed down by all of the QB busts we have taken in the 2nd round, me especially.

Back to pick #7… the other anomaly is how scattered the realized value of each pick has been.  Part of that is because we only have 10 data points for each pick, but it is still very noticeable.  8 of the first 10 picks are among the 9 most valuable picks in PPG which means we don’t completely suck at drafting as I previously joked about.  Pick #7 comes in as the 25th most valuable pick in realized value.  The other anomaly is pick number 11 ranks all of the way down at 36 OVERALL, followed by the 14th pick at 37 OVERALL!!!  That is late 4th round value for early 2nd round picks. 

Some of this could go back to the gambling mindset so it will be interesting to see if this trend continues for the next decade.  The biggest takeaway for me from the data below is that the first three picks are the premiere picks.  They always seems to come through with consistent value as you would expect. 

Rank

Pick #

Games

Points

PPG

1

2

538

8,808

16.37

2

3

531

8,249

15.54

3

1

579

8,500

14.68

4

6

364

5,159

14.17

5

8

515

7,069

13.73

6

12

484

6,520

13.47

7

5

574

7,555

13.16

8

10

481

6,105

12.69

9

4

653

8,250

12.63

10

17

539

6,764

12.55

11

29

356

4,282

12.03

12

22

508

5,806

11.43

13

56

333

3,797

11.40

14

15

446

5,069

11.37

15

9

496

5,429

10.95

16

13

612

6,644

10.86

17

16

441

4,450

10.09

18

20

475

4,768

10.04

19

34

449

4,273

9.52

20

31

417

3,926

9.41

21

26

528

4,874

9.23

22

41

385

3,522

9.15

23

19

521

4,627

8.88

24

27

526

4,664

8.87

25

7

432

3,825

8.85

26

35

397

3,446

8.68

27

61

162

1,373

8.47

28

23

446

3,631

8.14

29

40

418

3,399

8.13

30

30

398

3,210

8.06

31

46

265

2,125

8.02

32

18

437

3,442

7.88

33

37

408

3,185

7.81

34

52

281

2,155

7.67

35

25

488

3,728

7.64

36

11

398

3,038

7.63

37

14

424

3,226

7.61

38

24

344

2,615

7.60

39

21

370

2,751

7.43

40

39

313

2,258

7.21

41

58

197

1,404

7.13

42

36

318

2,110

6.64

43

43

352

2,297

6.52

44

28

307

1,998

6.51

45

48

226

1,387

6.14

46

44

345

2,064

5.98

47

62

95

565

5.94

48

32

208

1,211

5.82

49

38

268

1,534

5.72

50

57

276

1,561

5.65

51

49

262

1,358

5.18

52

47

160

821

5.13

53

45

324

1,618

4.99

54

51

260

1,268

4.88

55

54

256

1,157

4.52

56

33

248

1,118

4.51

57

59

115

476

4.14

58

55

211

871

4.13

59

60

103

405

3.93

60

53

316

1,237

3.91

61

42

323

1,099

3.40

62

64

97

309

3.19

63

66

89

284

3.19

64

50

203

644

3.17

65

69

20

63

3.16

66

67

138

423

3.06

67

68

18

34

1.89

68

63

81

106

1.31

69

65

80

102

1.28

70

70

2

0

0.00

 

Pick #29 is the oddest of them all… Dak Prescott, Diontae Johnson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Curtis Samuel all went in the late 3rd round at 29.  These guys are all still producing this season and Eno Benjamin will only move this spot further up with his 2022 season. 

Pick #56 is propped up by Kirk Cousins, but also had plus value from Dustin Hopkins and Preston Williams

 

Hopefully others will find the draft pick value chart useful when trying to make trades in the future.  Donations and tips are appreciated for this free information J 

 

Who Is the Best Drafter In TFFL?

 

Now let’s move on to who is the best drafter in our league.  Using the data above from the value chart I now know what the expected value of each pick should be.  Unfortunately we all suck at drafting so I had to grade us on a curve.  Using the value chart from above and comparing it to the PPG scored by each player taken, here are the rankings of the best drafters in our league…

 

Franchise

Value O/U Pick

1

BigDawgRavens

0.18

2

DreamTeam84

-0.25

3

Spitbulls

-0.51

4

Casters Pink Rocket

-0.69

5

Taint

-0.80

6

Frosted Flaccos / Bellas Pooty

-0.86

7

G-Stringers

-0.88

8

TB Bucs

-0.90

9

Wet Beavers

-0.95

10

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

-1.05

 

Using a curve where I added 1 PPG to every player’s true PPG, BigDawgRavens was the only franchise that came out with a positive value creation over expected value.  Over half the league is getting almost a point less than expected value for the picks they made. 

The reason I wanted to use a curve is I know a lot of late round picks are used on “lottery ticket” type guys.  I did not want to penalize the scale even though the likelihood is that we will all continue to draft that way with gambling on guys late rather than taking WR’s or K’s that are safer options for long term value.

With that in mind, let’s filter down the grading to just players taken in the first 3 rounds of our draft…

Franchise

Value O/U Pick

1

BigDawgRavens

0.91

2

Casters Pink Rocket

-0.09

3

Spitbulls

-0.16

4

Wet Beavers

-0.32

5

Frosted Flaccos / Bellas Pooty

-0.45

6

G-Stringers

-0.64

7

Taint

-0.67

8

DreamTeam84

-0.83

9

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

-1.00

10

TB Bucs

-2.58

 

Once again, BigDawgRavens runs away with it averaging exactly a full point more than CPR.  Another interesting team with this comparison is DreamTeam84.  While they are #2 on the overall grading, they are 8th in the first three rounds.  This would mean that they are the best franchise at finding value in our drafts in rounds 4 or later.

Congrats BigDawgRavens on being the big dog when it comes to drafting in our league.

 

Tim’s Best / Worst Draft Classes

 

Earlier in the article Glenn provided us with his best draft classes in TFFL history.  I am a data guy so I am going to let the data show who is the best and then I will drill down into a few of those classes.  Here is a look at the top 20 draft classes in our league’s history…

Year

Team

Players Drafted

Value Over Expected

2017

BigDawgRavens

10.00

33.21

2017

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

5.00

25.38

2012

BigDawgRavens

9.00

19.41

2016

G-Stringers

6.00

18.65

2017

Taint

7.00

17.42

2019

BigDawgRavens

20.00

16.17

2018

BigDawgRavens

12.00

16.03

2015

Frosted Flaccos / Bellas Pooty

7.00

15.37

2018

Spitbulls

9.00

13.14

2014

DreamTeam84

4.00

12.72

2020

Wet Beavers

7.00

12.03

2020

Casters Pink Rocket

2.00

10.83

2012

DreamTeam84

6.00

9.82

2020

BigDawgRavens

11.00

7.82

2020

DreamTeam84

9.00

7.09

2012

Casters Pink Rocket

8.00

6.60

2021

Frosted Flaccos / Bellas Pooty

9.00

6.46

2014

Taint

6.00

5.78

2020

Spitbulls

9.00

5.60

2013

TB Bucs

7.00

5.22

 

What stands out to me are the 5 drafts by BigDawgRavens where they took 9 or more players and 4 of those drafts are in the top 7 overall… Wow.

 

My Top 5 Overall:

 

2017 BigDawgRavens:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2017

12

2

Patrick Mahomes

QB

63

26.73

1,684

17.13

2017

61

7

George Kittle

TE

67

13.59

911

10.34

2017

30

3

Aaron Jones

RB

69

15.39

1,062

8.39

2017

35

4

Kenny Golladay

WR

61

11.58

707

5.18

2017

11

2

Mitchell Trubisky

QB

58

14.14

820

4.34

2017

54

6

Zane Gonzalez

K

65

7.41

482

3.46

2017

13

2

DeShone Kizer

QB

18

9.39

169

-0.01

2017

14

2

O.J. Howard

TE

59

6.49

383

-2.71

2017

45

5

ArDarius Stewart

WR

15

1.13

17

-3.92

2017

15

2

Joe Williams

RB

0

0.00

0

-9.00

 

2012 BigDawgRavens:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2012

58

7

Case Keenum

QB

78

12.21

952

8.66

2012

2

1

Andrew Luck

QB

87

21.65

1,884

7.15

2012

22

3

Alshon Jeffery

WR

109

13.30

1,450

5.50

2012

52

6

Greg Zuerlein

K

155

8.83

1,369

4.68

2012

13

2

Lamar Miller

RB

106

11.27

1,195

1.87

2012

36

4

Ladarius Green

TE

56

5.04

282

-1.24

2012

10

1

Coby Fleener

TE

87

8.06

701

-1.94

2012

26

3

Chris Givens

WR

61

5.23

319

-2.17

2012

45

5

DeVier Posey

WR

25

1.96

49

-3.09

 

2017 Taint:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2017

8

1

Alvin Kamara

RB

73

20.91

1,527

10.16

2017

22

3

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR

63

13.85

873

6.05

2017

49

5

Matt Breida

RB

61

7.57

462

3.12

2017

1

1

Leonard Fournette

RB

63

15.87

1,000

0.87

2017

2

1

Joe Mixon

RB

66

15.24

1,006

0.74

2017

17

2

D'Onta Foreman

RB

26

7.02

183

-1.58

2017

39

4

Taywan Taylor

WR

35

3.97

139

-1.95

 

2019 BigDawgRavens:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2019

17

2

Daniel Jones

QB

38

16.35

621

7.75

2019

29

3

Diontae Johnson

WR

47

14.07

661

6.97

2019

62

8

Matt Gay

K

40

9.79

392

6.74

2019

12

2

Deebo Samuel

WR

38

16.18

615

6.58

2019

40

4

Myles Gaskin

RB

34

11.04

375

5.24

2019

9

1

DK Metcalf

WR

49

14.46

709

4.21

2019

8

1

A.J. Brown

WR

43

14.92

642

4.17

2019

14

2

Drew Lock

QB

24

13.26

318

4.06

2019

72

11

Lil'Jordan Humphrey

WR

17

3.74

64

3.74

2019

66

9

Keelan Doss

WR

7

3.47

24

1.22

2019

73

12

David Sills

WR

4

0.93

4

0.93

2019

3

1

David Montgomery

RB

44

14.41

634

0.41

2019

70

10

Tyree Jackson

QB

0

0.00

0

-1.45

2019

34

4

Miles Boykin

WR

37

3.30

122

-3.22

2019

57

7

Karan Higdon

RB

0

0.00

0

-3.65

2019

23

3

Benny Snell

RB

40

3.75

150

-3.95

2019

51

6

Bruce Anderson

RB

0

0.00

0

-4.25

2019

43

5

Jalen Hurd

WR

0

0.00

0

-5.35

2019

16

2

Justice Hill

RB

26

2.40

63

-6.40

2019

5

1

N'Keal Harry

WR

33

4.42

146

-7.58

 

2018 Spitbulls:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2018

10

1

Lamar Jackson

QB

58

21.95

1,273

11.95

2018

7

1

Nick Chubb

RB

58

15.22

883

4.22

2018

55

6

Eddy Pineiro

K

21

7.47

157

3.62

2018

35

4

Dallas Goedert

TE

57

9.10

519

2.70

2018

38

4

Justin Jackson

RB

37

6.59

244

0.55

2018

8

1

Sony Michel

RB

55

9.45

520

-1.30

2018

21

3

Dante Pettis

WR

31

5.84

181

-2.06

2018

48

5

Deon Cain

WR

15

1.43

21

-3.17

2018

60

7

Jordan Lasley

WR

0

0.00

0

-3.35

 

On the flip side, let’s look at some of the worst draft classes of all time.

 

Year

Team

Players Drafted

Value Over Expected

2021

TB Bucs

11.00

-31.77

2012

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

6.00

-26.62

2016

Casters Pink Rocket

11.00

-26.31

2015

BigDawgRavens

10.00

-25.00

2020

G-Stringers

9.00

-22.68

2013

Taint

9.00

-21.64

2016

BigDawgRavens

10.00

-20.05

2021

BigDawgRavens

11.00

-19.84

2014

Spitbulls

9.00

-19.32

2021

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

10.00

-18.61

2017

Frosted Flaccos / Bellas Pooty

5.00

-17.59

2016

Spitbulls

10.00

-16.68

2019

Taint

4.00

-16.51

2016

DreamTeam84

5.00

-14.74

2015

Wet Beavers

5.00

-13.80

2012

TB Bucs

6.00

-13.58

2021

DreamTeam84

7.00

-12.88

2019

Casters Pink Rocket

11.00

-12.81

2013

Frosted Flaccos / Bellas Pooty

3.00

-12.80

2019

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

8.00

-12.41

 

It is surprising to see BigDawgRavens on this list with 3 of the worst 8 drafts of all time. 

 

My Worst 5 Overall:

 

2021 TB Bucs: I know this is only last year, but looking at the names I don’t see much room for improvement other than Ehlinger.

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2021

62

7

Ihmir Smith-Marsette

WR

6

4.77

29

1.72

2021

71

10

Kawaan Baker

WR

0

0.00

0

0.00

2021

56

6

Jaret Patterson

RB

15

3.73

56

-0.02

2021

70

9

Jacob Harris

TE

2

0.00

0

-1.45

2021

66

8

Sage Surratt

WR

0

0.00

0

-2.25

2021

55

6

Pooka Williams

RB

0

0.00

0

-3.85

2021

49

5

Tylan Wallace

WR

12

0.36

4

-4.09

2021

37

4

Larry Rountree

RB

8

1.95

16

-4.21

2021

43

5

Sam Ehlinger

QB

3

0.30

1

-5.05

2021

39

4

Jamie Newman

QB

0

0.00

0

-5.92

2021

33

4

Javian Hawkins

RB

0

0.00

0

-6.64

 

2016 Casters Pink Rocket:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2016

13

2

Michael Thomas

WR

70

18.52

1,296

9.12

2016

19

2

Will Fuller

WR

55

12.20

671

4.00

2016

43

5

Rashard Higgins

WR

79

5.04

398

-0.31

2016

9

1

Paxton Lynch

QB

5

9.10

45

-1.15

2016

14

2

Devontae Booker

RB

85

6.76

574

-2.44

2016

53

6

Aaron Burbridge

WR

16

0.99

16

-3.06

2016

33

4

Pharoh Cooper

WR

66

1.76

116

-4.88

2016

12

2

Paul Perkins

RB

29

3.56

103

-6.04

2016

23

3

Tyler Ervin

RB

34

1.61

55

-6.09

2016

3

1

Corey Coleman

WR

27

6.35

171

-7.65

2016

22

3

Keith Marshall

RB

4

0.00

0

-7.80

 

2015 BigDawgRavens:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2015

5

1

Marcus Mariota

QB

73

14.63

1,068

2.63

2015

48

6

Ty Montgomery

WR

77

5.55

427

0.95

2015

13

2

DeVante Parker

WR

94

10.16

955

0.76

2015

23

3

Matt Jones

RB

25

8.12

203

0.42

2015

7

1

Tevin Coleman

RB

89

9.00

801

-2.00

2015

50

7

Gus Johnson

RB

0

0.00

0

-4.35

2015

33

4

Devin Smith

WR

23

2.25

52

-4.39

2015

43

5

John Crockett

RB

5

0.42

2

-4.93

2015

17

2

Maxx Williams

TE

72

3.32

239

-5.28

2015

6

1

Kevin White

WR

22

2.69

59

-8.81

 

2012 Rookie Mistakes:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2012

21

3

Vick Ballard

RB

17

8.14

138

0.24

2012

1

1

Robert Griffin

QB

59

12.74

752

-2.26

2012

18

2

Brian Quick

WR

82

4.06

333

-4.34

2012

41

5

Tommy Streeter

WR

1

0.00

0

-5.65

2012

31

4

Cyrus Gray

RB

35

0.89

31

-5.99

2012

11

2

Isaiah Pead

RB

30

1.17

35

-8.63

 

2013 Taint:

Year

Pick

Round

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2013

6

1

Eddie Lacy

RB

60

12.29

737

0.79

2013

58

7

Charles Johnson

WR

38

4.06

154

0.51

2013

18

2

Mike Gillislee

RB

36

7.18

258

-1.23

2013

54

6

Mike James

RB

25

2.49

62

-1.46

2013

47

5

Josh Boyce

WR

9

2.34

21

-2.41

2013

38

4

Ray Graham

RB

1

3.00

3

-3.04

2013

28

3

Kerwynn Williams

RB

38

3.91

149

-3.29

2013

12

2

Christine Michael

RB

37

5.31

196

-4.29

2013

2

1

Montee Ball

RB

21

7.28

153

-7.22

 

 

Best & Worst Value Draft Picks

 

The last look I am going to take is at the best and worst value draft picks of all time.  Again, this is comparing the points per game versus the expected value of the pick they were selected at.

 

Best Values:

Year

Pick

Round

Team

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2017

12

2

BigDawgRavens

Patrick Mahomes

QB

63

26.73

1683.98

17.1

2012

56

6

DreamTeam84

Kirk Cousins

QB

125

19.71

2463.14

16.0

2020

10

1

Casters Pink Rocket

Justin Herbert

QB

32

24.68

789.60

14.7

2016

29

3

G-Stringers

Dak Prescott

QB

85

21.70

1844.38

14.6

2018

15

2

BigDawgRavens

Josh Allen

QB

61

23.35

1424.22

14.3

2012

17

2

Spitbulls

Russell Wilson

QB

158

22.16

3501.36

13.6

2017

6

1

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

Deshaun Watson

QB

54

24.77

1337.84

13.3

2018

10

1

Spitbulls

Lamar Jackson

QB

58

21.95

1272.92

11.9

2020

71

9

Wet Beavers

Darnell Mooney

WR

33

11.21

369.80

11.2

2020

52

6

TB Bucs

James Robinson

RB

28

15.30

428.30

11.1

2017

31

4

TB Bucs

Cooper Kupp

WR

71

17.36

1232.80

10.5

2017

61

7

BigDawgRavens

George Kittle

TE

67

13.59

910.80

10.3

2017

8

1

Taint

Alvin Kamara

RB

73

20.91

1526.62

10.2

2021

45

5

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

Elijah Mitchell

RB

11

15.00

165.00

9.9

2020

73

11

DreamTeam84

Tyler Bass

K

33

9.89

326.40

9.9

2015

37

4

Frosted Flaccos / Bellas Pooty

Stefon Diggs

WR

104

15.74

1637.20

9.6

2017

4

1

Wet Beavers

Christian McCaffrey

RB

58

22.54

1307.10

9.5

2016

13

2

Casters Pink Rocket

Michael Thomas

WR

70

18.52

1296.20

9.1

2020

12

2

Spitbulls

Justin Jefferson

WR

33

18.26

602.60

8.7

2012

58

7

BigDawgRavens

Case Keenum

QB

78

12.21

952.02

8.7

 

Worst Values:

Year

Pick

Round

Team

Player

Position

Games

PPG

Total Points

Value O/U Pick

2019

18

2

Spitbulls

Will Grier

QB

2

-2.34

-4.68

-10.7

2020

23

3

G-Stringers

Jacob Eason

QB

1

-3.00

-3.00

-10.7

2013

9

1

BigDawgRavens

Marcus Lattimore

RB

0

0.00

0.00

-10.3

2014

1

1

Wet Beavers

Bishop Sankey

RB

29

5.51

159.70

-9.5

2017

15

2

BigDawgRavens

Joe Williams

RB

0

0.00

0.00

-9.0

2015

6

1

BigDawgRavens

Kevin White

WR

22

2.69

59.20

-8.8

2013

16

2

Wet Beavers

Tyler Wilson

QB

0

0.00

0.00

-8.8

2016

18

2

Spitbulls

Cardale Jones

QB

1

-0.26

-0.26

-8.7

2012

11

2

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

Isaiah Pead

RB

30

1.17

35.00

-8.6

2013

8

1

Savvys Revenge / Rookie Mistakes

Johnathan Franklin

RB

10

2.37

23.70

-8.4

2016

22

3

Casters Pink Rocket

Keith Marshall

RB

4

0.00

0.00

-7.8

2016

3

1

Casters Pink Rocket

Corey Coleman

WR

27

6.35

171.40

-7.7

2019

24

3

Taint

Bryce Love

RB

0

0.00

0.00

-7.6

2017

25

3

Spitbulls

Chad Kelly

QB

1

-0.10

-0.10

-7.6

2012

14

2

Wet Beavers

LaMichael James

RB

18

1.60

28.80

-7.6

2019

5

1

BigDawgRavens

N'Keal Harry

WR

33

4.42

145.70

-7.6

2017

24

3

Casters Pink Rocket

Joshua Dobbs

QB

6

0.15

0.92

-7.4

2019

26

3

Casters Pink Rocket

Hakeem Butler

WR

1

0.00

0.00

-7.4

2016

7

1

DreamTeam84

Laquon Treadwell

WR

69

3.66

252.40

-7.3

2013

2

1

Taint

Montee Ball

RB

21

7.28

152.90

-7.2

 

Here are the other links to the Draft History data…

Summary - http://www.tffleague.com/TFFLRookieDraftsHistory.htm

Detailed Player Scoring - http://www.tffleague.com/TFFLRookieDraftsHistoryDetail.htm